Blueprint | November 08, 2024
Original article can be viewed HERE
Photo Credit: Blueprint
Harris couldn’t outrun her past or her party— it was a vice grip that proved impossible to escape.
KEY FINDINGS:KEY FINDINGS
- The top reasons voters gave for not supporting Harris were that inflation was too high (+24), too many immigrants crossed the border (+23), and that Harris was too focused on cultural issues rather than helping the middle class (+17).
- Other high-testing reasons were that the debt rose too much under the Biden-Harris Administration (+13), and that Harris would be too similar to Joe Biden (+12).
- These concerns were similar across all demographic groups, including among Black and Latino voters, who both selected inflation as their top problem with Harris. For swing voters who eventually chose Trump, cultural issues ranked slightly higher than inflation (+28 and +23, respectively).
- The lowest-ranked concerns were that Harris wasn’t similar enough to Biden (-24), was too conservative (-23), and was too pro-Israel (-22).
Today, Blueprint released the first data-based report about why voters cast their vote the way they did with a new poll conducted in the days after Election Day and weighted to the 2024 election results.
Respondents were presented with random pairs of potential reasons to vote against Harris and asked to select which reason they found more compelling. Each participant evaluated four pairs drawn from a pool of 25 distinct criticisms. The strength of each criticism was measured by how frequently it was chosen when presented as part of a pair. The relative importance is how much more it was selected than the average criticism. For instance, the most popular criticism, “Inflation was too high under the Biden-Harris Administration,” was selected 74% of the time, so it has a relative importance of +24, while the least popular, “Kamala Harris isn’t similar enough to Joe Biden,” was selected 26% of the time, so has a relative importance of -24.
This methodology allows us to efficiently rank the relative persuasiveness of different criticisms while minimizing survey fatigue and response bias.
The results paint a clear picture: Democrats were punished for inflation, misalignment on immigration and cultural issues, and Biden. The top three reasons not to vote for Harris were:
- “Inflation was too high under the Biden-Harris Administration” (+24)
- “Too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under the Biden-Harris Administration” (+23)
- “Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class” (+17).
This suggests that Harris was weighed down heavily by the Biden administration, particularly by inflation and their track record on immigration. Harris was also weighed down by voters’ belief that she focused on liberal cultural issues. In fact, this was the most frequent criticism among swing voters who broke for Trump (+28).
Despite Harris’s clear pivot on economic messaging, she couldn’t escape her record, her incumbency, or her party’s reputation. The numbers tell an unforgiving truth: voters didn’t just want Harris to distance herself from Biden’s policies; they wanted Harris to distance herself from what they believe the Democratic Party has become.
In the end, Harris couldn’t outrun her past or her party—perhaps it was a lack of time, but it was certainly a vice grip that proved impossible to escape.
Reasons Voters Did Not Choose Harris: All Voters, Swing Voters, Black Voters, Latino Voters, And Swing Voters Who Chose Trump
The colors represent a voting group’s top reasons in sets of three. With the darkest green representing the top three reasons and the darkest red representing the bottom three reasons.
The least chosen issues were “Kamala Harris isn’t similar enough to Joe Biden” (-24), “Kamala Harris is too conservative” (-27), and “Kamala Harris is too pro-Israel” (-22).
Neither criticisms from the left nor a longing for Biden were a major factor in why voters opposed Kamala Harris.
Voters were crystal clear that they wanted more distance from Biden and the Democratic brand, not less.
ABOUT THE POLL
Blueprint surveyed 3,262 national and swing state 2024 voters fielded over web panels from November 06 to November 07 and weighted to education, age, gender, race, and 2020/2024 election results. The margin of error is +/- 2.1. The swing state oversample included 1,883 voters.
Full topline available upon request.
- Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris.
